Nathan Humphrey
Quantitative methodology for sports projection and advanced metrics. Writing here connects the suite to what's actually happening on the floor / field / course / ice.
The Deterrence Trap: Reclassifying Rim Protection by Career Success in the Modern NBA
46 modern NBA centers, 419 center-seasons, sorted on a tracking-deterrence axis instead of blocks. Quadrant membership discriminates career production at Kruskal–Wallis p=0.003 — deterrence separates careers more sharply than the box score.
Variance Has a Position: A League-Wide Signal in Box-Score Projection Error
Projection-error variance carries a position-specific signal the mean misses. Center block-error variance is elevated 1.26×–2.03× and couples in all 11 testable cells across the NBA, WNBA, and NCAA D-I men's and women's under two independent methods.
The Portable Coach: Which NFL Coaching Effects Transfer Across Rosters, and How Confidently
Coaching authority is role- and resolution-specific and only partly portable. The offensive-coordinator schematic profile ports at slope 0.469 (95% CI 0.32–0.62); head-coach portability brackets zero — it lives in which coach, not a population constant. nflverse 2002–2024.
The Giannis Trade
Our model made the Giannis-to-Miami Heat a 61-win team — but only with Norman Powell. Why Detroit, not Milwaukee, is the trade's real loser.